Preseason Rankings
Alabama St.
Southwestern Athletic
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating-10.2#325
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.2#148
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-4.8#300
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-5.4#328
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 25.0% 58.7% 24.7%
.500 or above in Conference 62.8% 87.2% 62.6%
Conference Champion 11.4% 20.9% 11.3%
Last Place in Conference 6.3% 0.2% 6.4%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Iowa St. (Away) - 1.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.0 - 1.30.0 - 1.3
Quad 1b0.0 - 1.40.0 - 2.7
Quad 20.1 - 2.20.2 - 4.9
Quad 30.6 - 3.50.8 - 8.4
Quad 49.9 - 7.810.8 - 16.2


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 30   @ Iowa St. L 64-86 1%    
  Nov 08, 2018 79   @ South Dakota St. L 70-86 4%    
  Nov 21, 2018 34   @ Iowa L 69-90 1%    
  Nov 28, 2018 184   @ Akron L 68-77 14%    
  Dec 12, 2018 95   @ Boise St. L 65-80 6%    
  Dec 15, 2018 144   @ Utah St. L 67-79 11%    
  Dec 18, 2018 258   @ Sam Houston St. L 68-73 25%    
  Dec 21, 2018 155   Liberty L 62-73 17%    
  Dec 22, 2018 254   Campbell L 71-76 33%    
  Jan 05, 2019 296   Grambling St. L 74-77 51%    
  Jan 07, 2019 335   Jackson St. W 67-65 65%    
  Jan 12, 2019 332   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff W 71-70 45%    
  Jan 14, 2019 344   @ Mississippi Valley W 76-72 53%    
  Jan 19, 2019 349   @ Alabama A&M W 72-66 58%    
  Jan 26, 2019 346   Alcorn St. W 74-69 75%    
  Jan 28, 2019 343   Southern W 72-68 71%    
  Feb 02, 2019 243   @ Texas Southern L 74-80 24%    
  Feb 04, 2019 297   @ Prairie View L 75-77 33%    
  Feb 09, 2019 332   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 71-70 64%    
  Feb 11, 2019 344   Mississippi Valley W 76-72 72%    
  Feb 16, 2019 349   Alabama A&M W 72-66 76%    
  Feb 23, 2019 346   @ Alcorn St. W 74-69 54%    
  Feb 25, 2019 343   @ Southern W 72-68 52%    
  Mar 02, 2019 243   Texas Southern L 74-80 43%    
  Mar 04, 2019 297   Prairie View L 75-77 52%    
  Mar 07, 2019 296   @ Grambling St. L 74-77 33%    
  Mar 09, 2019 335   @ Jackson St. W 67-65 46%    
Projected Record 10.8 - 16.2 9.7 - 8.3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.0 3.0 2.0 0.9 0.3 11.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.6 4.7 2.6 1.1 0.1 13.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 2.2 4.9 4.3 1.5 0.3 0.0 13.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.3 5.1 3.7 1.0 0.1 0.0 12.6 4th
5th 0.4 2.8 5.0 3.1 0.6 0.0 11.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.4 4.9 2.8 0.3 0.0 11.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.1 2.2 0.2 0.0 9.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.0 3.0 1.6 0.3 7.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.0 2.1 1.0 0.1 0.0 6.1 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.4 0.0 3.5 10th
Total 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.6 3.5 4.9 6.7 8.5 10.6 10.5 10.9 10.8 9.4 8.0 5.8 4.1 2.1 0.9 0.3 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 100.0% 0.9    0.9 0.0
16-2 96.8% 2.0    1.7 0.3
15-3 73.1% 3.0    2.2 0.7 0.0
14-4 51.2% 3.0    1.4 1.3 0.3
13-5 19.9% 1.6    0.5 0.7 0.4 0.0
12-6 5.4% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.4% 11.4 7.1 3.3 0.9 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 0.3
17-1 0.9% 0.9
16-2 2.1% 2.1
15-3 4.1% 4.1
14-4 5.8% 5.8
13-5 8.0% 8.0
12-6 9.4% 9.4
11-7 10.8% 10.8
10-8 10.9% 10.9
9-9 10.5% 10.5
8-10 10.6% 10.6
7-11 8.5% 8.5
6-12 6.7% 6.7
5-13 4.9% 4.9
4-14 3.5% 3.5
3-15 1.6% 1.6
2-16 0.8% 0.8
1-17 0.4% 0.4
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%